According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 has increased to 47% despite ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. This shift suggests that markets are currently pricing in only a short-lived conflict, leading to reduced risk premiums in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor developments closely, as a confirmed nuclear agreement could further stabilize oil prices and decrease volatility for cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, which often react to geopolitical uncertainty. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 18, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold is maintaining its strength, signaling that markets do not expect a major global conflict despite ongoing Israel-Iran tensions. Oil prices have risen by approximately 2% today, reflecting immediate geopolitical concerns, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.50%. Market sentiment, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter, suggests these factors are not expected to pose a significant long-term headwind. For cryptocurrency traders, this relative market stability and risk-on sentiment could support continued resilience in major assets like BTC and ETH, as traditional safe havens such as gold absorb short-term shocks. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 17, 2025)

According to Cas Abbé on Twitter, despite widespread concerns about a potential World War 3, key market indicators such as the S&P 500 being only 2% below its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $100,000, oil trading below $100 per barrel, and gold remaining under $4,000 suggest that global financial markets are not currently pricing in a significant geopolitical crisis. This resilience highlights ongoing bullish sentiment in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency market, indicating that traders do not perceive imminent global conflict as a high-probability event at this time (source: Cas Abbé, Twitter, June 17, 2025).